NOT a cognitive error pertaining to probabilistic reasoning?

• A. Something is likely to happen but does not hold true in all cases
• B. All ARE cognitive errors discussed in the book
• C. A generalization from a single anecdote to a population
• D. Assuming correlation implies causation

Answer: (B)

The main idea being tested is recognizing which statement isn’t a probabilistic reasoning error. The three options describe common ways people get probabilistic reasoning wrong: generalizing from a single anecdote to a whole population, and assuming that correlation means causation, are classic errors in thinking about how probability and causality work. The first describes an hasty generalization, the second points to the correlation-causation pitfall, and the third captures the tendency to think a result that’s likely in some cases will hold universally. The statement about “All are cognitive errors discussed in the book” isn’t itself a probabilistic reasoning error; it’s a meta-claim about the book’s content rather than a flawed way of thinking about probability. Therefore it’s the best choice for NOT being a probabilistic reasoning error.